Episode Description: Japan's Early Recognition of China as a Security Risk

Welcome to another episode of "Drum Tower." In this episode, we delve into Japan's early recognition of China as a security risk, long before the US and Western security conferences started discussing China's potential threat. Join us as we explore the historical context, the changing dynamics between the two countries, and Japan's efforts to warn other nations about China's behavior.

A Complex History: Second Sino-Japanese War and World War II

The history between Japan and China, particularly the Second Sino-Japanese War and World War II, has left a lasting impact on their relationship. We examine how these historical events have shaped their dynamics and continue to influence their interactions today.

Normalization and Economic Cooperation

After World War II, Japan took steps to normalize relations with China in 1972. China, in turn, sought Japanese investment to modernize its economy. We explore the economic cooperation between the two countries and how it contributed to their evolving relationship.

A Shift in Power: China's Rise as the Second-Largest Economy

In 2011, China surpassed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy. This shift in power had significant implications for the Japan-China relationship. We analyze the impact of this change and how it heightened tensions between the two nations.

Territorial Disputes and Changing Behavior

Tensions between Japan and China escalated in 2010 and 2012 due to territorial disputes in the East China Sea. These disputes served as a catalyst for Japan to warn the US about China's changing behavior and ambitions. We examine the events that led to this escalation and its implications.

The Weaponization of Trade

Trade became a weapon in the changing dynamics between Japan and China. We discuss how China's decision to halt exports of rare earth metals to Japan highlighted the shifting power dynamics and the impact it had on both countries.

Japan's Early Recognition and Warnings

Japan's early recognition of China as a security risk predates Xi Jinping's leadership. We explore Japan's efforts to warn other countries about China's changing behavior and ambitions, which began more than a decade ago. These warnings laid the foundation for Japan's strategic approach towards China.

Join us next week as we continue our exploration of Japan's policies towards China under Xi Jinping's leadership. We'll also discuss whether the West can learn from Japan's strategies in dealing with China. Don't miss it!

The conundrum of how to de-risk and deter conflict with China is puzzling the West. But one country is ahead in figuring out how to deal with a changing China: Japan.

In the first episode of a two-part series, The Economist’s senior China correspondent, Alice Su, and our Tokyo bureau chief, Noah Sneider, discuss how Japan sees China, and ask whether—after a tangled history of trade ties and territorial disputes—the Sino-Japanese relationship is at a turning-point.

They speak to Aoki Shunichiro, a former director of Panasonic in Beijing, about how Japan’s post-war guilt shaped its economic engagement with China. And Sasae Kenichiro, a former ambassador to America, explains why his warnings of a decade ago about Chinese expansionism and aggression were not heeded.

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